Goldman Says Fed Likely to Hold Off Rate Hike as Negative Data Pours In

Goldman Sachs officials are ready to push back their rate hike forecast to late 2016. As Bloomberg reported, they are hedging their bets on a December rate hike (probably to save face):
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said there’s a chance U. S. policy makers will delay raising interest rates well into next year. While Goldman Sachs’s central forecast is still for a December liftoff, a slowdown in output and employment may justify the Fed keeping rates near zero for ‘much longer,’ the bank said in a report.’
Peter has been saying the Federal Reserve won’t raise rates all year. Now, as the year winds down and bad economic data continue to leak out, the mainstream appears to be catching up. Peter said it will eventually wake up completely.
The pretense that the Fed is about to raise rates, that a rate hike is just around the corner is going to end. It cannot withstand all of this negative economic news.’

This post was published at Schiffgold on OCTOBER 8, 2015.

Why Are The IMF, The UN, The BIS And Citibank All Warning That An Economic Crisis Could Be Imminent?

The warnings are getting louder. Is anybody listening? For months, I have been documenting on my website how the global financial system is absolutely primed for a crisis, and now some of the most important financial institutions in the entire world are warning about the exact same thing. For example, this week I was stunned to see that the Telegraph had published an article with the following ominous headline: ‘$3 trillion corporate credit crunch looms as debtors face day of reckoning, says IMF’. And actually what we are heading for would more accurately be described as a ‘credit freeze’ or a ‘credit panic’, but a ‘credit crunch’ will definitely work for now. The IMF is warning that the ‘dangerous over-leveraging’ that we have been witnessing ‘threatens to unleash a wave of defaults’ all across the globe…
Governments and central banks risk tipping the world into a fresh financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund has warned, as it called time on a corporate debt binge in the developing world.
Emerging market companies have ‘over-borrowed’ by $3 trillion in the last decade, reflecting a quadrupling of private sector debt between 2004 and 2014, found the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report.
This dangerous over-leveraging now threatens to unleash a wave of defaults that will imperil an already weak global economy, said stark findings from the IMF’s twice yearly report.
The IMF is actually telling the truth in this instance. We are in the midst of the greatest debt bubble the world has ever seen, and it is a monumental threat to the global financial system.

This post was published at The Economic Collapse Blog on October 8th, 2015.

3 Things: Confidence, GDP Forecast, Market Rally

Has Consumer Confidence Peaked?
The latest reading of consumer confidence (103 for September) was a bit of head-scratcher. With the market in the midst of a 10% correction, layoffs rising, job, wage growth stalling, and China on the verge of implosion, how could confidence rise?
While the media, and the Federal Reserve, focus on lifting asset prices to spur consumer confidence, as I discussed previously, such actions have relatively little impact on the vast majority of American’s currently. However, there is a very high correlation between actual economic activity and consumer’s confidence as shown in the chart below.

This post was published at StreetTalkLive on 7 October 2015.

News Flash: Silver Demand Unabated; Perth Mint Sales Surge

After record-breaking world-wide silver demand in the third quarter of 2015, the surge continued in September, with Bloomberg reporting sales at the Perth Mint in Australia hit the highest level in at least three years last month.
Sales of silver coins and minted bars jumped to 3.35 million ounces in September from 707,656 ounces the previous month, the mint said on its website on Friday. That’s the highest on record according to mint data compiled by Bloomberg dating back to 2012. Gold sales rose to 63,791 ounces, the highest in a year, from 33,390 ounces in August.’

This post was published at Schiffgold on OCTOBER 8, 2015.

Goldman “Picks Apart” The Labor Paradigm: 50 Years Of A Productivity Paradox

‘Let me put this in perspective. For the total economy, productivity growth was 2.7% from 1920 to 1970, 1.6% from 1970 to 1994, 2.3% from 1994 to 2004 during what we call the dotcom era, and just 1.0% from 2004 to the second quarter of 2015.1 So the productivity growth of the last 11 years was not only slower than in the dotcom era, but even slower than in the so-called slowdown period beginning in the early 1970s.’
That’s from Robert Gordon, a professor of economics at Northwestern University and it comes courtesy of Goldman who has taken a close look at declining labor productivity in the US.
As the Vampire Squid notes, falling productivity is something of a paradox. That is, better technology and advances in efficiency should by all rights have increased productivity but apparently, a number of factors are intervening to short circuit the system. Here’s Goldman’s full interview with Gordon.
The reason for the slowdown after 1970 is straightforward: we simply exhausted the productivity benefits of prior innovations. In the late 19th century, hugely important ‘general purpose’ technologies, like electricity and the internal combustion engine, were invented. Then there were major developments in entertainment and communication in the form of the telephone, telegraph, radio, motion pictures and television. We made major breakthroughs in health. And we vastly improved working conditions. All of that came together between 1920 and 1970. The last three spin-offs of the great inventions – interstate highways, commercial air travel, and air conditioning in most businesses – were also largely complete by 1970. So at that point we had run through the productivity payoffs.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 10/08/2015.

John Boehner To Stay On As Speaker After All, Fox Reports

As The GOP lurches from turmoil to chaos, following speaker-in-waiting McCarthy’s pulling out, Fox News’ Bret Baier reports thatSpeaker John Boehner has agreed to stay on as Speaker – not just until the Caucus nominates someone – but, until that person can confirm 218 votes on the House floor (needed to take the Speaker’s gavel).

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 10/08/2015.

Spoofer Complains About Spoofing, Is Ignored, Starts Spoofing, Gets Busted

In light of Blackrock’s Hillary Clinton’s sudden interest in taming high frequency trading and imposing a fee on order cancellations, something we have said is imperative ever since 2009 and now is far too late to make a difference, it is worth highlighting that just today the SEC cracked down on yet another spoofing mastermind, no not Citadel, but another “basement” trader, Eric Oscher, 47, a former NYSE specialist and his firm Briargate Trading (an anagram of Arbitrage), who were busted earlier today for making the gargantuan profit of $525,000.
While the argumentation in the complaint is by now familiar to most – someone spoofs a given stock or index, then quickl takes the other side, and cancels the spoofing order – there are three very notable items in this latest crackdown on said spoofing “mastermind.”
The first explains why in a market in which volumes are contracting at a record pace, and where liquidity is so scarce flash crashes have become a virtually daily event, exchanges continue to proliferate like weeds. The reason is because spoofers like Oscher use one exchange in which they “telegraph” their spoof orders, they use another exchange in which to take the opposite side of the trade thus leaving no readily available trail of evidence exposing their conduct.
This is how the SEC explains it:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 10/08/2015.

While We Sleep, Corporate Execs Strip-Mine America

Nothing shows how America’s reins are held than our out-of-control corporations, enriching their executives at the cost of the future of their businesses – and ours. Here’s another status report on this sad but fixable story.
The Q2 Buybacks Report by FactSet is, as usual, sobering reading. During the 12 months ending in June, companies in the S&P 500 spent $555.5 billion repurchasing their shares. For the first time since October 2009, buybacks exceeded free cash flow (cash flow after capex); they’re borrowing to buy back shares.
For the past two years buybacks have run at the fantastic rate of about $120 billion per quarter – the same rate as in 2006-2007, with tech companies the leaders. In 2014 they spent 95% of their profits on buybacks and dividends (building the future is somebody else’s problem in corporate America).
Investors applaud this as a boost to share prices. Surprising to the naive, a decade of buybacks has reduced the S&P 500’s share count by only 2%. Share buybacks are one part of the triangle trade that transfers vast fortunes from shareholders to senior executives using stock options:

This post was published at Wolf Street by Fabius Maximus ‘ October 8, 2015.

Carmageddon: This Is What 750 Million Chinese Hitting The Road Looks Like

If you’ve ever complained about your commute, or the traffic jams on your way to vacation destinations, here is some context from China…

As RT reports, the carmageddon took place on the 2,273-kilometer Beijing-Hong Kong-Macau Expressway that links the cities of Beijing and Shenzhen in the Guangdong province, at the border with Hong Kong on Tuesday.


This post was published at Zero Hedge on 10/08/2015.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – The Bucket Shop

Gold and silver were rallying slightly most of the day, while stocks were trending lower.
When the dovish Fed minutes came out stocks managed to rally and the precious metals reversed for losses.
The pricing of the metals at The Bucket Shop is strikingly diverged from the physical markets.
No where is this more apparent in the delivery reports, in which only copper seems to be getting some action, and little else.
The domestic warehouses continue to bleed out bullion. In particular gold is held in size now only at Scotia Mocatta and HSBC.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 07 OCTOBER 2015.

Fed Admits “Changes In Asset Prices”, “Decline In Equity Prices” Influenced Rate Decision

The only line from the Fed minutes that matters:
Some participants commented that the recent decline in equity prices needed to be viewed in the context of overall valuation levels, which they saw as relatively high, and a couple noted that volatility had begun to subside. During their discussion of economic conditions and monetary policy, participants indicated that they did not see the changes in asset prices during the intermeeting period as bearing significantly on their policy choice except insofar as they affected the outlook for achieving the Committee’s macroeconomic objectives and the risks associated with that outlook.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 10/08/2015.

OCT 8/MASSIVE GOLD WITHDRAWAL (JPMORGAN) AT THE GOLD COMEX AS WE WITNESS A ‘BANK RUN’/DEALER SILVER ALSO CONTRACTS/USA ESCALATES TENSIONS WITH CHINA BY SAILING AROUND CHINESE MAN MADE ISLANDS/EUR…

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:
Gold: $1144.70 down $4.30 (comex closing time)
Silver $15.76 down 33 cents.
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold $1139.50
Silver: $15.70
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
At the gold comex today, we had a very poor delivery day, registering 0 notices for nil ounces Silver saw 0 notices for 10,000 oz.
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today, the total inventory rests at 207.73 tonnes for a loss of 95 tonnes over that period.
In silver, the open interest fell by a tiny 484 contracts despite the fact that silver was up 11 cents on yesterday. We thus must have had some sort of an attempt at short covering by the bankers but it failed and thus the reason for the raid in silver this morning. The total silver OI now rests at 155,742 contracts In ounces, the OI is still represented by .778 billion oz or 111% of annual global silver production (ex Russia ex China).
In silver we had 0 notices served upon for nil oz.
In gold, the total comex gold OI rose to 431,298 for a gain of 1070 contracts. We had 0 notices filed for nil oz today.
We had no changes in tonnage at the GLD / thus the inventory rests tonight at 687.20 tonnes. The appetite for gold coming from China is depleting not only gold from the LBMA and GLD but also the comex is bleeding gold. It sure looks like 670 tonnes will be the rock bottom inventory in GLD gold. It looks to me that China has taken the last amounts of physical gold from the GLD. I guess the only place left for China to receive physical gold will be the FRBNY and the comex. In silver, we had no changes in silver inventory at the SLV / Inventory rests at 315.152 million oz.
We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on October 8, 2015.

Rate-Hike Odds Tumble Post-Minutes; Stocks Soar

UPDATE: Well that didn’t last long…
Stocks are now soaring after we noted the initial reaction…
A decidedly dovish FOMC Minutes, warning that the economy is not ready for rate-hikes, has driven rate-hike odds to their lows once again. December and January odds are now below 50% and markets are reacting with bond, crude, and bullion buying, dollar selling and stocks uncertainty.
Rate hike odds drop…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 10/08/2015.

U.S. Government Financial Numbers Are Manipulated To Keep The Illusion Of A Recovery – Episode 786a

The following video was published by X22Report on Oct 8, 2015
Despite huge layoffs the unemployment claims have decreased steadily and are now the lowest in 42 years. The number of homeless students increased since 2006. Most Americans have less than 1,000 in their savings. Retail report states this holiday season will be a disaster. Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse and Glencore could be the next Lehman. China launched its Yuan based payment system to go up against SWIFT. TPP is being used to keep China and the BRICS out of trade.

WHY THIS FEELS LIKE A DEPRESSION FOR MOST PEOPLE

‘And the little screaming fact that sounds through all history: repression works only to strengthen and knit the repressed.’ – John Steinbeck, The Grapes of Wrath
Everyone has seen the pictures of the unemployed waiting in soup lines during the Great Depression. When you try to tell a propaganda believing, willfully ignorant, mainstream media watching, math challenged consumer we are in the midst of a Greater Depression, they act as if you’ve lost your mind. They will immediately bluster about the 5.1% unemployment rate, record corporate profits, and stock market near all-time highs. The cognitive dissonance of these people is only exceeded by their inability to understand basic mathematical concepts.
The reason you don’t see huge lines of people waiting in soup lines during this Greater Depression is because the government has figured out how to disguise suffering through modern technology. During the height of the Great Depression in 1933, there were 12.8 million Americans unemployed. These were the men pictured in the soup lines. Today, there are 46 million Americans in an electronic soup kitchen line, as their food is distributed through EBT cards (with that angel of mercy JP Morgan reaping billions in profits by processing the transactions).

This post was published at The Burning Platform on 8th October 2015.

Chicago Suburbs $1 Million Home Sales “Not Totally Dead” Yet; Rush for the Exit

“Not Totally Dead” Yet
In the Chicago suburbs of Burr Ridge, Naperville, and Hinsdale, sales of high-end real estate hit a huge slump this summer that still continues.
For example, Crain’s Chicago reports the city of Burr Ridge, has 100 homes on the market for at least $1 million, but only 14 have sold at that price in the past six months.
Crain’s Chicago has the details in This suburb has too many $1 million-plus homes for sale (emphasis mine).
“It’s been disquietingly slow, brutally slow getting these sold,” said Linda Feinstein, the broker owner of ReMax Signature Homes in neighboring Hinsdale. “It feels like the brakes have been on for months.”
Sales slowed down all over the Chicago area this summer, and sometimes potential sellers don’t get the message soon enough, which creates an over-stock of inventory.

This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on October 08, 2015.