Chicago PMI Unexpectedly Dives to Negative Territory; Production at Lowest Since July 2009; Emanuel’s Tax Hikes Will Make Matters Worse

The Chicago PMI is in negative territory, plunging to 48.7 from a prior reading of 54.4 and a Bloomberg Consensus Estimate of 53.6.
Giant swings are common enough for the Chicago PMI which collapsed nearly 6 points in September to a sub-50 reading of 48.7. This indicates slight monthly contraction in the Chicago region’s composite activity.
New orders are below 50 as are backlog orders, the latter for an 8th straight month. Chicago-area businesses can’t rely on backlogs as much to keep up production which is also under 50 and at a 6-year low. Contraction in prices is deepening.
Recent History Of This Indicator
The Chicago PMI is expected to slow to 53.6 in September from 54.4 in August when delays in shipments gave the index a lift.

This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on September 30, 2015.

Brazilian Nightmare Worsens On Bad Budget Data, Record Low Confidence, Horrific Government Approval Ratings

Last month, in ”No Recovery For You!’ Brazil Officially Enters Recession, Goldman Calls Numbers ‘Disquieting”, we outlined Brazil’s July fiscal performance and came away believing that the country had little chance of hitting its primary fiscal surplus targets. Here’s what we said:
The latest on the political front is that President Dilma Rousseff has 15 days to explain to the the Federal Accounts Court why everyone seems to think that she intentionally delayed nearly $12 billion in social payments last year in an effort to make the books look better than they actually were. And while we won’t endeavor to weigh in one way or another on that issue, what we would say is that if someone in Brazil is doctoring this year’s books, they aren’t doing a very good job because things just seem to keep going from bad to worse. Case in point, on Friday, Brazil said its primary budget deficit was R10 billion in July, far wider than expected. The takeaway: “no primary surplus for you!” Just three days later, Brazil officially threw in the towel on the primarily surplus projection for 2016 only to reverse course a few weeks later when embattled Finance Minister Joaquim Levy promised to enact some BRL26 billion in primary spending cuts for the 2016 budget on the way to achieving in a primary surplus that amounts to 0.7% of GDP.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 09/30/2015.

Jeff Berwick on The Guerrilla Economist on Impending Financial Crisis, WWIII and Dead Bankers

The following video was published by TheDollarVigilante on Sep 30, 2015
Jeff is interviewed by VGuerilla, the Guerrilla Economist, ‘”V” is a “guerrilla economist” who has worked for some of the top commodity trading firms and investment banks. He also contributed to private think tanks that help create investment policy.’ Topics include: Jeff’s origins in Canada and the genesis of Stockhouse.com, some very good calls and predictions, where are the people awakening the most? USA has some of the most brainwashed and least free people in the world, expatriation to Mexico, Central and South America, The Shemitah cycles, religion vs spirituality, massive increase in debt since 2008, interest rate deadlock, impending market crash this fall, unprecedented economic situation, low supplies of physical gold and silver, Russia moving away from US dollar trade, potential for world war 3, massive explosions at strategic locations in China, massive dumping of US securities, attempts to hide US govt debt, the BRICS nations do not need the USA!

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – End of Quarter, Miners Catch a Bid

The miners outperformed the metals today for the end of the third quarter. I am getting much more interested in the miners at these prices, and my interest will become stronger if the metals can manage to sustain a rally out of this bear market trend.
If the metals rally, I would expect the mining sector to outperform given its beaten down condition and its higher beta to the metal prices. But that is a big ‘if.’
Non-Farm payrolls on Friday.
The active month has flipped over to gold for October and it was reflected in the delivery report from yesterday.
The slow bleed of metal out of the warehouses continues.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 30 SEPTEMBER 2015.

6 Out Of 6 Fed Surveys Confirms The US Is In A Recession And Headed Into A Collapse – Episode 779a

The following video was published by X22Report on Sep 30, 2015
ADP reports jobs gains, but manufacturing has lost another 15K jobs. The US has not added a manufacturing job since the beginning of this year. 6 out of the 6 FED surveys now confirms that the US is in a recession and headed for a major collapse. ECB is planning to boost QE by 120%. China is continually accumulating gold and will start to leak how much they have to put confidence back into the system. The 3rd Quarter of this year has wiped 11 trillion dollars out of the global economy. Insurance companies are making excuses of why premiums are increasing. Hitachi creates a pre-crime system.

Retail Investors Have Never Been More Bullish Based On Record VIX ETF Selling

Back in late 2012, when the former chief of the NY Fed’s markets group, aka the head of the PPT, Brian Sack was replaced with the current head of the NY Fed’s trading desk, Simon Potter, we observed something curious: there was a dramatic, and record, surge in non-commercial bearish VIX bets the moment Potter took over, which courtesy of the reflexivity relationship between the VIX and the underlying market (since exposed everywhere, read: “Conspiracy “Fact” – VIX Manipulation Runs The Entire Market“), helped push stocks higher.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 09/30/2015.

SEPT 30/A LARGER THAN EXPECTED 9.6 TONNES STANDING FOR OCT DELIVERY AND ONLY 5.04 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD SITTING AT THE COMEX/LBMA AND OTC OPTIONS EXPIRE TODAY SO GOLD/SILVER SHOULD GO BACK UP…

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:
Gold: $1115.50 down $11.60 (comex closing time)
Silver $14.51 down 5 cents.
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold $1127.50
Silver: $14.66
I wrote the following last Thursday:
‘On the 24th of September, the comex options expired but we still have the LBMA options as well as the OTC options. Expect gold and silver to be relatively subdued until Oct 1.2015.’
still holds true today! Tomorrow the curse of the bankers will be off until next month’s expiry options.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
At the gold comex today, on first day notice we had a good delivery day, registering 121 notices for 12,100 ounces Silver saw 11 notices for 55,000 oz.
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today, the total inventory rests at 213.14 tonnes for a loss of 90 tonnes over that period.
In silver, the open interest fell by 620 contracts despite the fact that silver was up in price by 3 cents yesterday. The total silver OI now rests at 156,905 contracts In ounces, the OI is still represented by .784 billion oz or 113% of annual global silver production (ex Russia ex China).
In silver we had 93 notices served upon for 465,000 oz.
In gold, the total comex gold OI fell to 415,700 for a loss of 2070 contracts. This is par for the course as we always see a contraction as we approach an active delivery month. We had 121 notices filed for 12,100 oz today.
We had no changes in tonnage at the GLD; thus the inventory rests tonight at 684.14 tonnes. The appetite for gold coming from China is depleting not only gold from the LBMA and GLD but also the comex is bleeding gold. It sure looks like 670 tonnes will be the rock bottom inventory in GLD gold. It looks to me that China has taken the last amounts of physical gold from the GLD. I guess the only place left for China to receive physical gold will be the FRBNY and the comex. In silver, we had no changes in silver inventory at the SLV to the tune of 859,000 oz/Inventory rests at 317.384 million oz.
We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on September 30, 2015.

Even Evercore ISI Is Now Using The “R” Word, And What Happens Next

Evercore ISI, the company which unlike the ISM, conducts business surveys that are not only credible, but actionable, just looked at the latest data, and had the following observation: “Evercore ISI trucking survey is down a big -1.3 to 51.0 versus its peak last year of 65.4. The tech survey slipped below 50.0. If they don’t stop declining soon, we will become more worried about recession risk.”
More details:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 09/30/2015.

Indian government may not ask questions about gold submitted for paperizing

In a bid to make the much-awaited gold monetisation scheme more attractive, the government may do away with the requirement of receipt of purchase for ancestral gold. The same rule may also apply to temple and trust gold, which is estimated to be in huge quantity.
The Union Cabinet had earlier this month approved the scheme. The idea behind mobilising gold held by households and institutions in the country is to put the precious metal into productive use.
The long-term objective is to reduce the country’s reliance on the import of gold to meet domestic demand.
According to the original draft scheme required a depositor to show the purchase receipt of gold besides filling up a KYC form before giving away their gold for melting. But tonnes of gold lying with Indian households has been passed on from generation to generation which does not have any proof of ownership.

This post was published at Deccan Herald

Chris Martenson fully endorses the gold manipulation story

With his latest commentary, “Buy Gold While You Still Can,” market analyst Chris Martenson fully endorses the market manipulation account of the gold market, citing documents and developments GATA has been citing for years — and does so without, of course, a single reference to GATA.
As Plato said — or maybe it was Yogi Berra — “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, and then they go back to ignoring you, claiming that everybody knew all along what you were trying to tell them.”
Well, we long have understood that gratitude is not only rarer than gold but rarer than hair on GATA Chairman Bill Murphy’s head—and real teeth in your secretary/treasurer’s mouth, and GATA hasn’t been pounding away at this issue for 16 years in the hope of gratitude but rather for spite. We haven’t wanted the bastards to think that nobody was on to them.

This post was published at Peak Prosperity

US Manufacturing Recession Draws Eerie References to 2009

‘The Chicago Business Barometer declined 5.7 points to 48.7 in September as Production growth collapsed and New Orders fell sharply.’
These are the propitious words with which the Chicago Business Barometer by MNI Indicators started out this morning. And it wasn’t the first of the regional manufacturing reports to have conniptions about the sudden deterioration in manufacturing.
The report goes on:
The drop in the Barometer to below 50 was its fifth time in contraction this year and comes amid downgrades to global economic growth and intense volatility in financial markets which have slowed activity in some industries.
Respondents blamed, as the report said, ‘China’s economic woes’ (about 30%) and problems in Europe (20%). Of the five components, only Employment rose. Supplier Deliveries was unchanged. As for the rest, it was morose:
Production led the decline with a sharp double-digit drop that placed it at the lowest since July 2009. New Orders also fell significantly and both key activity measures are running well below their historical averages.
Order Backlogs remained in contraction for the eighth month in a row. The oil price plunge pushed the Prices Paid index to ‘the lowest since July 2009.’

This post was published at Wolf Street on September 30, 2015.

Gold & Silver Barter: All You Need to Know

Physical silver and gold isn’t just for preserving your savings. It’s also the world’s oldest form of money.
You can bypass the Federal Reserve’s worthless paper dollars by spending precious metals with friends, neighbors, and businesses which accept sound money. We’ve created a brand new Barter Metals page with all of the information you need to get started conducting business using physical gold and silver – and links to our most popular barterable products.
Barter may seem outdated, but as Peter Schiff points out, it has a long history in the US:
Historically, paying for items in silver or gold was actually quite common. We happen to live in an unusual time and place where generations have grown up trading exclusively in paper. While my parents still used dimes made of silver, we have now gone several decades with no precious metals in any of our official coinage. But this system of money by government fiat is unsustainable.’

This post was published at Schiffgold on SEPTEMBER 30, 2015.

If You Think Health Insurance Increases Are Personal Only…

I have a small business quote here in my hot little hand.
The quotes range in increase (depending on the option the firm chooses) of 54.4 to 81.6%, and they include a mandatory underwriting review that has not yet been completed.
This sort of crap is going to destroy businesses and severely depress wages. It simply must; nobody can afford this sort of increase without it utterly decimating their operating margins.

This post was published at Market-Ticker on 2015-09-30.

Is This Why Valeant’s Default Risk Is Blowing Out Today

This Monday, in the aftermath of the Turing Pharma’s Martin Shkreli “price gouging” scandal, Citron Research came out with a report in which, in order to justify its “Short Valeant” thesis, it released a table which showed what it believed was the true specialty pharma culprit when it comes to rising drug prices: Valeant Pharmaceuticals.
To be sure, there was nothing scientific about the above unaudited table, which was surely meant to validate Citron’s underlying thesis, which incidentally is the same as that of Hillary Clinton and many others, namely that specialty pharma companies are eager to boost prices in an environment where various social safety nets and insurance regimes make such price increases not only tolerable, but virtually invisible at least until someone like Shkreli comes along and spoils the party for everyone.
So today, a more “credible” analysis was released by Deutsche Bank, one which has essentially done precisely what Citron did in tracking the change of drug prices, not only for Valeant but the entire specialty pharma industry.
As a reminder, the main reason why the biotech space has gotten crushed in recent days is due to concerns the US government may impose price caps in the coming months.
This is what Deutsche Bank had to say:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 09/30/2015.

Jeff Bezos Is The Poster Child For U.S. Systemic Ponzi Scheme

Forbes released its annual list of wealthiest Americans this week. The data shows that Jeff Bezos, the founder and CEO of Amazon.com, made $16 billion in 2014. While perhaps admired by the segment of our society that worships the dollar above all else, this is nothing more than the grotesque reminder how just how fraudulent the United States system has become.
Bezos earned in one year more than 8x the amount of net income that he has delivered to AMZN shareholders cumulatively over the 20-year operating history of the Company:

This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on September 30, 2015.

Obamanomics: Food Stamp Growth Outpaces Jobs In Illinois During “Recovery”

Illinois is the only state in the Midwest to have added more people to food-stamp rolls than to employment rolls during the recovery from the Great Recession. Job losses from the Great Recession occurred from January 2008 to January 2010, and since then, states have had five-and-a-half years of recovery.
During the recovery from the Great Recession, the Land of Lincoln, alone in the Midwest, had more people enter the food-stamps program than start jobs. Food-stamps growth in Illinois has outpaced jobs creation by a 5-4 margin.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 09/30/2015.