Halfway Home?

First off I’m on a working one week family vacation down on the panhandle of Florida which is why I didn’t get to post any late Friday Night Charts. It just so happened that this week was the best week to get the family together before school starts in a couple of weeks. I will still be watching the markets and posting each day but if nothing important is happening I may knock off a little early.
I also want to thank everyone who is posting at the forum. It really is a great place to share your idea’s and ask question as we have some really talented folks there. As Sir Fullgoldcrown likes to say, ‘It’s all for one and one for all.’ Whatever it takes to get an edge makes no difference to me as long as we get the edge.
In this Weekend Report I’m going to update some charts we’ve been following very closely in regards to the precious metal complex. I’m going to use the GDX as a proxy for the other PM stock indexes as it shows the volume. They’re all basically showing the same patterns which the combo triangle/H&S consolidation patterns as their last important consolidation pattern. There is also a very important but yet uncompleted bearish falling wedge that has been developing for the last three weeks. If there was ever a place for one of these types of patterns to form we’re at that point right now. These patterns tend to show up in fast moving markets at about the halfway point in the impulse move.
I’m going to just use the combo triangle/H&S consolidation pattern and the possible little red bearish falling wedge to look for a price objective. The daily chart below is a one year look at GDX which shows the all important low that formed in November of last year. I’ve always viewed that November low as the beginning of the consolidation pattern on GDX that ended at the end of June and the beginning of July. Using the little red three week possible bearish falling wedge as a halfway pattern I get two price objectives based on the two different consolidation patterns. The breakout from the black triangle gives us a price objective down to the 9.35 area while the breakout from the H&S consolidation pattern gives us a little higher price objective up at the 9.70 area. There is one more price objective I can put on this daily chart using the black triangle and the possible little red bearish falling wedge as a halfway pattern. The blue arrows shows the impulse method where I take the distance from the last reversal point in the black triangle and measure down to the first reversal point in the little red falling wedge. I then take that measurement and add it to the last reversal point in the little red falling wedge which gives us a price objective a little deeper down to the 8.65 area. So, just based on these two consolidation patterns we may see some type of low between 8.65 and 9.35 or so.

This post was published at GoldSeek on Monday, 10 August 2015.

Summertime Blues: Copper, Oil, Lumber, Foodstuffs Have All Declined Since August 2014

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Confounded Interest – Online Course Notes For Financial Markets. To view original, click here.
Much attention has been focused on collapsing oil prices, such as West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil. But since August 2014, other important commodities have been crushed in terms of price: lumber, copper and food stuffs.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Anthony B. Sanders ‘ August 9, 2015.

Four Economic Myths that Perpetuate the Euro Crisis

Too much of the commentary about the Greek crisis has focused on whether or not Greece should drop the euro and not enough on the structural problems arising out of decades of socialism. Meanwhile, the Greek government has borrowed more money than the Greek people can possibly repay, and debased money will not make this fact disappear. On the contrary, more easy money will cause even more harm.
The best thing that Europe and Greece can do for itself right now is to confront some of the economic fallacies that have long driven the debate over Greece, the euro, austerity, and debt. Here are four fallacies that are among the most damaging:
1. The Euro Is Too Strong a Currency for Greece This statement usually is accompanied by a reference to Greek productivity being lower than that of the northern tier EU countries. The logic, such as it is, states that the euro is not a suitable currency for countries with vastly different levels of productivity. This is followed by a recommendation that Greece leave the European Monetary Union and reinstate the drachma. The National Bank of Greece then would set a very low exchange rate between the drachma and the euro, making Greek products more competitive.

This post was published at Ludwig von Mises Institute on AUGUST 10, 2015.

Austrian Economics: Response to Noah Smith

I am delighted that Mr. Noah Smith has sharply criticized Austrian economics; he does so in 2014 and again in 2015. He may not know much about the subject (a little knowledge often leads to grave error) but he writes in an entertaining manner, he spells the name of this school of thought correctly, he is vociferous in his critique (actually pretty nasty, but that is ok), and, most important, he writes for a mainstream news outlet. As far as I am concerned, no publicity is bad publicity. Even unsuccessful attacks on the praxeological school such as his two articles help promote it; so, in my view, Austrians ought to be grateful to Mr. Smith.
What are the specifics? Let us start with his article of July 2, 2014, entitled ‘Austrian Economists, 9/11 Truthers and Brain Worms.’ First, what are ‘brain worms? Smith explains:
‘In the film ‘Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan,’ the super-genius villain puts alien worms into people’s brains in order to subvert them to his demented cause. I think Khan could have been an Austrian economist. To those of you who have run afoul of the defenders of Austrianism on the Internet, the analogy will be clear. The Austrian worldview is like a brain worm that has infected large swathes of our financial industry, commentariat and general public. Even you, dear reader, may carry one or two of its wriggling larva inside your gray matter.
‘When the Austrian brain-worm invades, you start believing things like: 1) Federal Reserve money-printing is a government plot to boost big banks, 2) prices are rising much faster than anyone thinks, 3) real ‘inflation’ means money-printing, not an increase in prices, 4) printing money can never boost the economy, 5) academic economics is a plot to use mathematical mumbo-jumbo to cover up government giveaways to big banks, etc., etc.’

This post was published at Lew Rockwell on August 10, 2015.

“They’ll Blame Physical Gold Holders For The Failure Of Monetary Policies” Marc Faber Explains Everything

Submitted by Johannes Maierhofer and Peter Matay via Marcopolis.net,
In this exclusive interview with Marcopolis.net Marc Faber covers it all: from commodities and China to the outlook on inflation, the Euro and gold. According to him the global economy is not healing. To the contrary, we might find ourselves back into recession within six months or a year. In that case he expects more money printing by central banks, which eventually could lead to high inflation rates and renewed strength in commodity prices.
On the bright side, he sees great economic potential in Vietnam. Also, the Iraqi stock market has good potential now that a deal with Iran has been reached. While mining stocks are extremely depressed we might see defaults before any meaningful recovery.
* * * In your 2002 book ‘Tomorrow’s gold’ you identified two major investment themes: emerging markets along with commodities. That was a great call. As for commodities, they had a great run up until 2008. Then they crashed sharply along with everything else just to recover strongly into 2011. Since then they have acted weakly, and recently commodities even reached a 13-years low. Is this the end of the commodities-super-cycle, as some have claimed, or is it more like a correction?

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/09/2015.

Shelter from These Storms in the Distance

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Money Morning. To view original, click here.
In South Florida, we call the dog days of summer the ‘mean season’, as vicious thunderstorms move over the Everglades every afternoon and attack the east coast with lightning strikes and blinding downpours. We keep our fingers crossed that the storms won’t morph hurricanes that can sweep the ocean over the land and cause catastrophic destruction.
After a period of intense hurricane activity in the early 2000s, it’s been ten years since we’ve been hit by any serious storms, and we are being told that strong El Nino conditions will likely protect us again this season. But we know that sooner or later our luck will run out, and we will be back in the eye of dangerous winds and storm surges. And, at least for a moment, we’ll wish we lived somewhere other than in paradise.
Stock market investors are experiencing similar feelings after a six year hiatus from reality, courtesy of the Federal Reserve. Paradise is starting to give way to a very mean season…

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Michael E. Lewitt ‘ August 9, 2015.

Gerald Celente Is Predicting That A Stock Market Crash Will Happen By The End Of 2015

Gerald Celente of the Trends Research Institute has just gone on the record with a prediction that there will be a stock market crash by the end of this calendar year. If you are not familiar with Gerald Celente, he is one of the most highly respected trends forecasters in the entire world. He has been featured on CNN, The Oprah Winfrey Show, The Today Show, Good Morning America, CBS Morning News, NBC Nightly News and Coast to Coast AM. Personally, I have a lot of respect for him. While it is true that not every single one of his forecasts about the future came to pass over the years, he does have a very solid track record that goes back for decades. He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash, the bursting of the dotcom bubble and the financial panic of 2008. Just a couple of days ago, he told Eric King the following: ‘I’m now predicting that we are going to see a global stock market crash before the end of the year.’ Celente says that it won’t just be U. S. stocks either. He believes that crashes are also coming to ‘the DAX, the FTSE, the CAC, Shanghai, and the Nikkei’. It other words, it is going to be a truly global financial crisis and he says that there is ‘going to be panic on the streets from Wall Street to Shanghai and from the UK down to Brazil’.
When you go out on a limb like this, you are putting your credibility on the line. This is something that Celente has only done a few times in the past, and normally he has been spot on…
Rarely do I ever put a date on market crashes. I did it in 1987when I forecast the 1987 stock market crash – that was in the Wall Street Journal. I also forecast the ‘Panic of 2008,’ and the ‘dot-com bust’ in October of 1999, when I said it (the dot-com mania) would fail in the second quarter of 2000…

This post was published at The Economic Collapse Blog on August 9th, 2015.

China’s Exports Plunge 8% in July; Spotlight on US Trade Imbalance With China

In addition to bubble-busting events in real estate and the Chinese stock market, China now has to deal a plunge in exports.
Following Saturday’s report Chinese Exports Slump Over Eight Percent, analysts expect more China stimulus.
Chinese exports tumbled 8.3 percent in July, their biggest drop in four months and far worse than expected, reinforcing expectations that Beijing will be forced to roll out more stimulus to support the world’s second-largest economy.
Imports also fell heavily from a year earlier, in line with market forecasts but suggesting domestic demand might be too feeble to offset the weaker global demand for China’s exports.
Exports to the European Union fell 12.3 percent in July while those to the United States dropped 1.3 percent. Demand from Japan, another big trading partner, slid 13 percent.

This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on Sunday, August 09, 2015.

Is The Fractional Bullion Scheme Finally Beginning To Collapse?

We will not be receiving our shipment of RCM 10 oz Silver bars. This coupled with an internal inventory discrepancy has effected a few of our customer orders. We have been working diligently each day to secure RCM bars through various sources for our customers at any cost. Unfortunately, we were unable to fulfill some orders, including yours. – Email sent to Provident Metals customers who prepaid for silver bars which Provident had represented to be in Provident’s inventory
‘Internal inventory discrepancy?’ What other inventory discrepancies are occurring at Provident. What kind of ‘inventory discrepancies’ are occurring at other bullion dealers. I can’t believe Provident sent notice of delivery default with a claim of inventory control issues.
Why not just admit the truth that the bullion dealer pre-sold bars that it was expecting to receive from the RCM and the RCM stopped production and ran out of supply before Provident received its full order allocation?
On the heels of Bullion Direct direct blowing up, this is another indicator that the fractional bullion system is beginning to collapse.

This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on August 9, 2015.

Report: Public Demand For Precious Metals Skyrockets: ‘The Whole Supply Chain Could Be Cleaned Out’

Though we’ve seen a significant drop in precious metals prices over the last several years, new evidence from one of the world’s leading retail brokers further suggests that there is a massive disconnect between the paper price on global exchanges and demand by the general public.
According to a report from Money Metals Exchange, buyers were snapping up everything they could get their hands on over the last 45 days:
Public demand for gold and silver coins, rounds, and bars suddenly skyrocketed since mid-June – particularly among first-time customers – to multiples of earlier demand levels, according to Money Metals Exchange, a national precious metals dealer in the U. S.
From June 16 to July 31, Money Metals Exchange experienced a 135% surge in gold and silver sales over the prior 45-day period (which was representative of the early months of 2015). Since June 16, the number of first-time customers rose even more dramatically, with 365% more new purchasers than the prior period.
‘As the Greece default debacle unfolded in late June, something clicked in investors’ minds, and many have since bought whatever physical gold or silver they could get their hands on,’ said Stefan Gleason, president of Money Metals Exchange. ‘In particular, we experienced a dramatic and unprecedented surge in first-time customers clamoring to obtain the financial insurance that gold and silver represent.’

This post was published at shtfplan on August 9th, 2015.

“Teflon” Trump Remains Double-Digit Leader In Post-Debate Poll

Despite rumors, spin, Koch Brothers’ spending, and FOX News’ efforts, “Teflon” Donald Trump remains the clear leader in the first post-debate poll.
As NBC News reports,
According to the latest NBC News Online Poll conducted by SurveyMonkey, Trump is at the top of the list of GOP candidates that Republican primary voters would cast a ballot for if the primary were being held right now. The overnight poll was conducted for 24 hours from Friday evening into Saturday. During that period, Donald Trump stayed in the headlines due to his negative comments about Kelly and was dis-invited from a major conservative gathering in Atlanta.
None of that stopped Trump from coming in at the top of the poll with 23 percent.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/09/2015 –.

QUOTES OF THE DAY

‘For thousands of years gold has been, in times of war and crisis, the ultimate store of value and medium of exchange. Gold is virtually indestructible, anonymous, mobile and almost universally acceptable.
In times of crisis and uncertainty the presence of a sizeable gold holding boosts confidence of creditors, not least because gold is the highest quality asset: unlike foreign currencies, it is not a claim on a debtor (bank or government) and therefore does not have the same risk of default in times of crisis.’

This post was published at The Burning Platform on 9th August 2015.

Bill Still: Poll Update (And My Comments)

My comment: It didn’t work, Fox; in fact, it blew up in your face.
What is being misunderstood is that this is not so much about Trump as it is about the Republican party, which has lied repeatedly over the last several decades and, when in power, has failed to deliver on any of its promises despite having the ability to do so.
The mealy-mouthed games have finally awakened the people of this country who understand that there is a Constitution and it has meaning — the original meaning in the words, not some load of crap after-the-fact that happens to be convenient for you at the time.
The cuckservative games, whether condescending crap that spews repeatedly from John McCain, the crying of Boehner, the outright lies of Ryan and McMorris-Rodgers and more have finally reached the point that the people of this country with a view toward the original intent and wisdom of the founders of this nation, never mind the Republican structure of our government, have simply had enough.


This post was published at Market-Ticker on 2015-08-09.

The Canaries Continue To Drop Like Flies

One would think as ‘canary’ after ‘canary’ falls silent either sickened with laryngitis, or worse – completely comatose, that those on Wall Street as well as the financial media itself would not only have seen, but heard, many of the warning calls that have been obvious for quite some time. Yet, history always shows; not only do they not see, but more often than not – they don’t want to see, nor hear the warning calls.
Even when all the warning signs are screaming danger – not only are they ignored, they’re explained away as if those which saw or heard them, should be ignored as they’ll contend not only did one not see; but couldn’t see.
What they’ll propose is: ‘That was not a ‘canary’ but rather a ‘dodo.’ After all, with a Fed that’s as interactive as this one currently is, surely what they believe they heard, or saw is impossible. For people say they’ve spotted warning signs in these ‘markets’ for years, and none have yet produced a crisis because – they’re now extinct! ‘ Yet, the wheezing sounds of many a Wall Street songbird has been apparent for quite a while. Again: If only one would care to look or listen.
Back in April of 2014 in an article titled ‘The Scarlet Absence Of A Letter of Credit’ I opined a few scenarios as to why this seemingly dismissed revelation by the so-called ‘smart crowd’ should not go unnoticed. For the implications may very well portend far greater reasons too worry in the coming future. Below is an excerpt. And let’s not forget this is some 16 months ago. When the financial media et al were still reciting in unison the wonders to which, ‘China will be the economy that leads us out of this current malaise.’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/09/2015.

“We Should Admit This Isn’t Going To Work”: One Country’s Grim Assessment Of Greece’s Future

On Saturday, Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung reported that Greece’s creditors – the ‘quadriga’ as it were – had agreed on the terms to be imposed on Athens in return for an ESM rescue package worth some 86 billion. The 27-page draft MOU is “substantial and far reaching,” and includes cuts to defense spending and subsidies for farmers, Bloomberg says, summarizing the FAZ report.
Greece desperately needs to close the deal next week. If the new program isn’t formally in place by August 20, a 3.2 billion payment to the ECB won’t be possible – a default to the central bank would likely be catastrophic, as Greece’s banking sector would collapse entirely in the absence of the ELA liquidity drip.
Once Greek officials agree to the conditions, the draft will be circulated to EMU member countries for approval and Alexis Tsipras will need to go once more to parliament where he hopes the Syriza rebellion which imperiled the first two votes on bailout prior actions will have died down in the wake of a dramaticparty meeting late last month in which the Greek Premier insisted that for the time being, “opposing voices must stop.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/09/2015.