Big Four Economic Indicators Still Near Stall Speed

Note from dshort: With this morning’s release of the Consumer Price Index for September, we can now calculate Real Retail Sales for last month.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.
There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. They are:
Industrial Production Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Payments) Nonfarm Employment Real Retail Sales The Latest Indicator Data Today’s report of 214K new nonfarm jobs was a bit lower than most economists had forecast, but the lower number was more than offset by upward revisions to the new jobs for August (from 180K to 203K) and September (from 248K to 256K). The unemployment rate dropped a notch from 5.9% to 5.8%.
Nonfarm Employment, especially after the revision of the two previous months, is the least volatile of the Big Four. As we can see in this snapshot of the monthly percent change since 2000.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 11/07/2014.

Why Matt Taibbi Thinks This Woman Is JPMorgan’s “Worst Nightmare”

In reality, there is nothing surprising in Matt Taibbi’s latest piece since returning to Rolling Stone from the Intercept, as it tells a story everyone is by now is all too familiar with: a former bank employee (in this case Alayne Fleischmann) who was a worker in a bank’s (in this case JPM) mortgage operations group, where she observed and engaged in what she describes as “massive criminal securities fraud” and who was fired after trying to bring the attention of those above her to said “criminal” activity.
The story doesn’t end there, and as Carmen Segarra already showed, when she revealed that Goldman runs the NY Fed, once Alayne was let go and tried to “whistleblow” on the house of Jimon from the outside, she found the that US Department of Justice headed by Eric Holder is just as, if not more, corrupt, and in his desperate attempt to prevent discovery and bring JPM et al to justice, he would stretch the statue of limitations on frauds committed during the crisis long enough to where nobody had any legal recourse any more, up to and including the US taxpayer.
That is the 1 minute recap of yet another story in which the good guys lose, the bad guys bet everything on red, are bailed out when black hits, lie, never go to jail and instead use the same bailout funds to keep paying “settlement charges” to bribed government officials and avoid prison time. In short, the bad guys win.
And all with the help of every branch of the US government.
For those who want to read more, Taibbi’s “The $9 Billion Witness: Meet JPMorgan Chase’s Worst Nightmare” is a must read, even if, as noted, it says nothing that frequent Zero Hedge readers didn’t already know. It does, however, have some great cartoons.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/07/2014.

Gold Bug Psychology Must Be Neutered

The precious metals bear market, beginning with silver’s blow out in early 2011 and the general top in the commodity and ‘inflation trade’ along with gold’s lesser blow out later that summer amidst Euro crisis hysterics, has been all about psychology. Well, every bear or bull market is about psychology, but the intensity of this dynamic has been something to behold in the gold sector over these last few years.
Psych 101 In early 2011 long-term interest rates were rising in response to inflationary pressures, ‘Bond King’ Bill Gross famously shorted the long bond, virtual mobs with pitchforks were storming the Fed’s castle calling for Ben Bernanke’s head and silver went to $50 an ounce, with calls for $100, $200, etc. All psychology my friends.
While on the subject of the long bond, our ‘Continuum’ chart shows that players did not learn 2011’s contrarian lesson with respect to yields as they took Wall Street’s ‘Great Rotation’ hype hook, line and sinker in 2013. What did the 30 year yield then do? Why, it hit our long-term limiter (monthly EMA 100, red dotted line) and has dropped ever since.

Pigs on the Wing & Sheep If market participants are ‘Sheeple’ as many gold bugs believe, then the average gold bug – as evidenced by so many peoples’ staunch refusal to give up on the shiny relic – are Sheeple squared, because the gold ‘community’ (right there a give away on group think) has distinct leaders or troubadours who, if the faithful will just hang in there long enough, will be proven right as we are all led to the promised land.
Yet the bear market has cruelly put the promised land further and further out on the horizon with each impulse of hope. The gold story is one of righteousness because sound value (and insurance) not beholden to leverage is monetarily righteous. But promoters and/or buffoonish spokespeople have either knowingly or unknowingly used the righteousness of the message to keep people firmly in the grip of dogma all the way down during the bear market.

This post was published at Gold-Eagle on November 7, 2014.

Hyper-Printing The $100 Federal Reserve Fiat Note vs Gold

The amount of leverage in the U. S. Dollar fiat currency system reached an all time high in 2013. Even though the growth in total U. S. currency more than doubled since the collapse of the Housing and Investment banking system in 2008, the majority of the increase was from just one bill in particular.
U. S. Department of Engraving and Printing issued more $100 Federal Reserve Notes in 2013, than in any year prior. Of course, part of the reason was due to the new $100 anti-counterfeit bill released in 2013, but the increased trend for the largest bill has been going on for decades.
This can plainly be seen in the graph below:

According to the U. S. Department of Engraving and Printing, the U. S. Treasury printed a staggering 4.4 billion of the $100 Federal Reserve Notes in 2013. This is up from a mere 323 million of $100 notes in 1993… just two decades ago.
The chart also points out the obvious, who needs $1 bills anymore… LOL?? In 1993, the U. S. Treasury printed 3.5 billion $1 Notes, but in 2013, this fell nearly in half to 1.8 billion. In order to understand the huge leverage now in the U. S. Fiat Currency System, we need to look at the following table:

This post was published at SRSrocco Report on November 7, 2014.

The Clarion Call, Episode 1

A New Weapon in the Watchman’s Arsenal
This is the Watchman, proudly announcing the release of the first trumpet blast of the ‘Clarion Call’ to the Truth HQ! The Clarion Call will be the name of my podcasts, and at this point, I’ll simply be putting these recordings into Youtube-friendly format.
I apologize for the sound quality at times, and for other nit picky things, but please bear in mind, that before today, I’d never even recorded my own Mp3! Much less uploaded my own personally-crafted youtube vid.
I’ve had a youtube channel for awhile, but didn’t wish to spill the beans before it was halfway ready. I’m excited to be able to bring our community very powerful, searing truths from another medium…fired in the only way I know how: double-canister!
In this first installment, I cover the most recent, glaring evidence yet…that our thesis is 100% correct:
That their extreme price smashes, are only serving to destroy the destroyers themselves!
Stay vigilant brothers, and bring the fight to them!

This post was published at The Wealth Watchman on NOVEMBER 7, 2014.

LBMA Announces ICE gets the Gold Fix

In what will obviously make the Intercontinental Commodity Exchange crow to annoy the CME Group, the London Bullion Market Association announced that it has picked ICE to manage the Gold Fix.
The new electronic fix will commence in early 2015 with 11 firms intending to participate.
This will be interesting to watch as it ushers in a new age for the gold fix and brings it into the 21th century. One can only hope that is functions smoothly and efficiently and above all, with increased transparency.
At this hour, gold is showing excellent chart performance as shorts are getting pushed out. Here is a quick chart. We now have some solid technical support levels that have formed as well as resistance levels that will make analyzing this market a bit easier.

This post was published at Trader Dan Norcini on Friday, November 7, 2014.

From The Bureau Of Lies And Scams

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 214,000 in October, and the unemployment rate edged down to 5.8 percent, the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in food services and drinking places, retail trade, and health care.
On the household survey the employed figure rose a stunning 995,000! Half of this came from “not in labor force” shrinking by 500,000 people — a large change.

This post was published at Market-Ticker on 2014-11-07.

The Strangest Number In Today’s Jobs Report

By now everyone knows that the simple reason why the US employment picture is so pathetic despite the endless propaganda spin (as the Democrats just found out earlier this week in a truly historic mid-term drubbing), and why there is no wage growth, is due to the aged portion of the labor force, those 55 and over, and which would otherwise be retiring, refusing to quit their jobs and, well, retire for one simple reason: ZIRP has destroyed the product of their lifetime work, their savings, and since tens of millions of Americans in their golden years can’t rely on a cash flow stream from their savings and retire, they are forced to keep working to an ever older age.
This can be seen not only in the chart of record workers aged 55 and over…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/07/2014.

Nonfarm Payrolls 214K (Led by 52,000 Leisure Jobs); Unemployment 5.8%; Labor Force 416,000

Initial Reaction
The payroll survey shows a net gain of 214,000 jobs vs. an expectation of 240,000 jobs. Last month was revised up from 248,000 to 256,000.
The labor force rose by a solid 416,000.
The unemployment rate fell by 0.1% on the basis of increased employment ( 683,000) instead of the more typical reason that people dropped out of the labor force. Swings in employment and the labor force have been wild lately.
All things considered, this was a pretty strong report.
The one drawback is where the job gains came from. 52,000 of those jobs came in the leisure and hospitality category. Of them, 42,000 were in food and drinking services. These are typically low-pay if not minimum wage jobs.
BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance
Nonfarm Payroll: 214,000 – Establishment Survey Employment: 683,000 – Household Survey Unemployment: -267,000 – Household Survey Involuntary Part-Time Work: -76,000 – Household Survey Voluntary Part-Time Work: 208,000 – Household Survey Baseline Unemployment Rate: -0.1 at 5.8% – Household Survey U-6 unemployment: -0.3 to 11.5% – Household Survey Civilian Non-institutional Population: 211,000 Civilian Labor Force: 416,000 – Household Survey Not in Labor Force: -206,000 – Household Survey Participation Rate: 0.1 at 62.8 – Household Survey

This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on Friday, November 07, 2014.

Can You Say Goldilocks?

The jobs report may have missed estimates, but it provides plenty of confirmation that the U. S. economy can sustain its growth momentum despite the sub-par outlook for its trading partners in Europe, Japan and China. Importantly, such a not-too-hot-and-not-too-cold read is exactly what stock market investors would love to see from the Fed angle.
A total of 214K jobs were created in the U. S. economy, below consensus estimates of around 233K and the 12-month average of about 222K. Importantly, the surprisingly weak report for August (we had a ‘shocking’ 142K read that month) has been steadily getting revised higher since then; it went up to 180K in last month’s report and got further revised higher today to 203K. As of this report, the monthly tallies for the last two months stand revised up by a combined 31K.
Private sector jobs totaled 209K in October vs. 244K in September and 200K in August. The gains were concentrated in the food service, retail and healthcare industries. Food service (includes bars and restaurants) added 42K during the month, up from the industry’s monthly average of 12K over the preceding 12 months. The 25K additions by the healthcare industry were broadly in-line with the pace of job gains over the preceding year. Professional and business services added 37K, below the preceding 12-month’s average of 56K. The manufacturing sector added 15K jobs, bringing the industry’s total job gains over the year to 170K, most of those coming from durable goods manufacturing.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 11/07/2014.

“It’s Different This Time” Japanese Stock Market Swing Is Fastest Ever

In the space of the last 3 weeks, Japanese stocks have swung from the most overbought in 18 months to the most oversold in 3 years to the most overbought in 18 months again. This is the fastest and most violent swing in TOPIX on record as ever-more-desperate hot money chases central bank actions around the world. As Bloomberg reports, ‘Japan is a very unnerving market because it behaves like an uneducated brat,’ said Mikio Kumada, Hong Kong-based global strategist at LGT Capital Partners, which manages about $50 billion. Following the double-whammy of GPIF allocations and BoJ expansion, he warns “you don’t know what it’s going to do in the next moment and in many ways it’s unpredictable.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/07/2014.

Non-Farm Payrolls Report for October – Birth Death Model to the Rescue

As you may have already heard there was a ‘miss’ in the new jobs added in the October Non-Farm Payrolls Report.
There were some other troubling aspects in that report that I will discuss in the stock commentary tonight, but I did wish to point out an outlier in the way in which the number was constructed.
As you can see in the first chart below, the number of jobs added in the BLS Birth-Death Model was higher than the usual number we have seen for the past six years.
This is certainly not the worst outlier. As you can see, April 2008 was a banner month for imaginary jobs, with which to welcome the new President.
This number is the estimate of how many jobs were added or subtracted by new or small businesses not captured in ordinary reporting. In my mind, it is such a creature of estimation as to just be a ‘plug.’
In the second chart I show the ‘headline number’ of jobs added with the seasonalized number of imaginary jobs from the Birth Death model subtracted out.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 07 NOVEMBER 2014.

Treasury Yields Are Crashing (Again)

The ‘miss’ on nonfarm payrolls but ‘beat’ on the unemployment rate appear to have been the perfect anti-goldilocks – not bad enough to warrant Fed speakers to discuss resurrecting QE and not good enough to confirm the growth meme… Having initially tumbled, Treasury sellers came in quickly after the NFP print, but since that BTFD, yields have collapsed 9bps… As we warned here, the market is still notably short bonds and liquidity is anything but strong.
The BTFD failed…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/07/2014 –.

GOLD: Will Bulls Or Bears Prevail?

First: A Small But Not Irrelevant Distraction,
I had to pinch the above graph from an informative article written by a writer named Grant Williams on the Swiss Gold Initiative, the subject of a referendum in roughly 30 days, spearheaded by Swiss MP Luzi Stramm and fund manager and writer Egon von Greyerz. Mr. Williams is correct in that a lot of gold analysts have written off the referendum as unlikely in their outlook for gold prices. He explains, however, that due to a quirk in Swiss law the public relations push for the new law, which would force the SNB to almost triple its gold reserves over five years, can be funded by anyone from anywhere.
Although Mr. Greyerz now claims that PayPal is blocking donations.
But let us not dilly-dally here when there’s obviously such a large elephant in the room.

This post was published at Gold-Eagle on November 6, 2014.

Payrolls Reaction – Algos Gone Wild: Stocks Pump-And-Dump, Silver Halted, Bonds Whiplashed

Treasury yields were leaking higher into the print then collapsed on the headlines. Stocks smashed higher on the ‘good’ news of a lower unemployment rate then read the details and have plunged. Silver prices smashed higher, futures were halted, then tumbled back. Total and utter chaos in the liquid markets…
Markets went nuts…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/07/2014.

The Petrodollar Dominoes: How The Strong Dollar Is Slamming Oil Exporters (And Other BRICs)

A week ago the Russian Ruble exhibited intraday volatility that makes the JPY look quiet when it crashed to record lows then soared dramatically on intervention hopes. Since then we have had a Russian Central Bank disappointment and some jawboning which did nothing press the Ruble to record-er lows against the USD. Then today, last week’s volatility in the Ruble was dwarfed when USDRUB blew past 48.5 only to be sent soaring (USDRUB lower) below 46 on hope of intervention. Russia is not alone. The Saudi Riyal has seen massive vol in recent weeks and Nigeria, another oil-producing nation, saw the Naira collapse yesterday then soar 8 handles this morning on what is confirmed intervention by the nation’s central bank. It appears the strong dollar is becoming an issue for the world’s oil-producing nations…
Ruble vol explodes on hopes for interventions…
Russian Ruble a bit more unstable than usual (purple in this currency chart)
— Eric Scott Hunsader (@nanexllc) November 7, 2014

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/07/2014.

Wild Volume in Overnight Gold Trade

Lions and Tigers and Bears, Oh my! Flash Crashes and Reverse Flash Crashes and Swings, Oh my!
That pretty much sums up what is happening at this hour as I watch the overnight trade. It is not only in gold, but I am seeing some very strange things occurring in the December meal contract as well.
Keep in mind what I wrote the other day about those in the gold perma bull camp who are always crying up their “Flash Crash” crap as evidence of some sort of price fixing conspiracy. Also, note that they are deathly silent on what I have sarcastically countered as “Reverse Flash Crashes”.
Well, guess what? We got both in one evening, separated by 90 minutes! The first occurred on heavy volume of upwards near 6000 contract that dropped gold $10 in 15 minutes. The Reverse Flash Crash occurred on even HEAVIER VOLUME and completely erased the losses from the “Flash Crash” and then some.

This post was published at Trader Dan Norcini on Thursday, November 6, 2014.

Payrolls Friday – Lots of Volatility

Payrolls number disappoints Wall Street could be the headline for today’s trading session. The always volatile number came in at 214K against expectations of a 233K. The rate of unemployment fell to 5.8% versus market expectations of 5.9%.
The numbers for September were adjusted upwards to 256K from 248K. Also, the August numbers were kicked up as well going from 180K to 203K.
As always, the data unleashed a round of furious price action across the currency markets, and by default, the gold market. Most are seeing the numbers as having a bit of something for all sides.
Those reacting to the headline number registered their disappointment by selling the Dollar, especially in favor of the Euro.

This post was published at Trader Dan Norcini on Friday, November 7, 2014.

China Likely Bought 10,000 Tons Of Gold…And If They Did, Here’s Why

My article “10,000 tons of gold… The math says China could have easily done it!”explains how it’s possible or even likely China has amassed 10,000 tons of gold. What it doesn’t explain is the context as to why this is so important. I know some now this story well, but for most, this needs repeating. A little History
Gold has long represented the primary means of rebalancing trade surplus / deficits between nations. As a nation ran a trade surplus with another, the exporter ended up with an excess of the importer nations currency. The primary means to rebalance was for the exporter to transfer back to the importer nation it’s currency in exchange for gold. If this continued, the importing nations falling gold holdings would represent a weakening currency…which would mean higher prices to the importing nation and less purchasing of the exporting nations goods slowing down the trade imbalance. Since the advent of paper money until 1971, this had been the general method to rebalance.
The US assumed the role of global reserve currency formally at the Bretton Woods conference just prior to the culmination of WWII. The agreement entailed the US dollar would be the ‘peg’ to which all other currencies would maintain their value within a /-1% band. This was the resolution of what had been lacking between the two world wars: a system of international payments that would allow trade to be conducted without fear of sudden currency depreciation or wild fluctuations in exchange rates. And of course, nations accumulating excess US dollars would be allowed to freely exchange them with the US for gold. And so it was from 1945 through 1971.

This post was published at Alt-Market on Friday, 07 November 2014.

Yellen Supports Draghi’s QE, Warns Of Heightened Volatility

Speaking from The Bank of France is crap-covered Paris, Janet Yellen stated that “bond purchases have ben effective”, and encouraged Mario Draghi to print moar, noting “central banks need to be prepared to employ all available tools, including unconventional policies, to support economic growth and reach their inflation targets,” but warned from the other side of the her two faces, that, “policy normalization will lead to heightened volatility.”


This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/07/2014 –.