Favorable Sentiment for a 4th Quarter Rally

The following is an excerpt from our October 30th Investor Sentiment Survey. Investor Sentiment Survey, one of 8 different reports that we provide for subscribers at various intervals throughout the month, is a monthly analysis of a broad list of both asset flow- and survey-based measures of professional and retail investor sentiment which focuses on their directional implications for the major areas of the U. S. financial markets.
From our September 11th Investor Sentiment Survey: ‘…the collective message of these data is that U. S. stocks can still be traded from the long side on a near term week-to-week basis, but be aware of the market’s vulnerability to an upcoming standard 10% correction’
Since that report the bellwether S&P 500 (SPX) first rose by an additional 1% into the September 19th high before declining by 10% into the October 15th low.
In today’s report we display and discuss the latest investor sentiment data according to surveys of futures traders, brokerage and advisory firms, and active Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs), plus the latest money market asset flows. These data collectively suggest favorable conditions for a 1-2 month U. S. stock market advance to begin from at or near its current level, but also warn that a deeper decline may still be on the horizon by early 2015.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 10/31/2014.