Sco – ish Vote

No word yet. Probably the NOs will have it. The wild card is the youth. The voting age was lowered in Scotland to 16. Therein is the wildcard. The ‘NOs’ they are calling the silent traitors who think the Scottish are incapable of standing up alone. They are quiet – not vocal – but may sell the country down the road of turmoil. When the economy turns down in 2016, this will lead to increasing civil unrest in Scotland that will turn violent at times.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on September 17, 2014.

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall Over 1% After Fed

The Metals:
Gold edged up to $1238.99 in Asia before it fell back to $1230.34 after the release of today’s fed statement and then bounced back higher, but it then fell back off again into the close and ended with a loss of 1.13%. Silver slipped to as low as $18.49 and ended with a loss of 1.18%.
Euro gold fell to about 949, platinum lost $15 to $1347, and copper fell a few cents to about $3.13.
Gold and silver equities fell in the last hour of trade and ended with over 2% losses.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 17 September 2014.

There Seems to be A Surge in the YES Camp

This is going to be very interesting. The money in the ‘City’ (London) is on a ‘NO’ Vote. But people often play what the WANT to Happen – not the actual trend. So the wild card will be the youth. Looking just at that group, there may be a surge in the YES vote at the end. It appears that the turnout will be in the 70-80% area. This will be a major outpouring of people voting that we have never seen in the USA. This surge appears to be like a Phase Transition.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on September 17, 2014.

CEOs Darken Outlook, Slash Hiring and Cap-Ex Plans – Hope Now Focused on Share Buybacks (which just Plunged)

The word ‘gloomier’ inconveniently showed up in a Reuters headline that described how the CEOs of the Business Roundtable – one of the thermometers into the brains of corporate America – felt about sales, employment, and capital expenditures. Yet, ‘gloomier’ or not, these CEOs run companies that have been spending near record amounts, not on productive uses such as capital expenditures or hiring more people to push revenues to the next level, but on buying back their own shares.
The Business Roundtable is an association of CEOs of the largest corporations in the US that account for ‘more than a third of the total value of the US stock market,’ according to its website. On its agenda: lower corporate taxes (tax credits!), more immigration of cheap labor, and trade – the big trade agreements currently being negotiated in all secrecy [my take from late last year, though resistance has grown since…. Coming Soon: Corporate Tools To Hollow Out National Sovereignty].
Or, as it says so eloquently, ‘working to promote sound public policy and a thriving US economy.’
But the BRT results didn’t speak of a thriving US economy. ‘CEO plans for investment, hiring and sales over the next six months decreased, with employment plans declining the most,’ the survey stated. It wasn’t pretty:

This post was published at Wolf Street on September 17, 2014.

sept 17

Gold closed down .80 at $1234.40 (comex to comex closing time ). Silver was up 1 cents at $18.66
In the access market tonight at 5:15 pm
gold: $1223.40
silver: $18.54
gold fell in the access market as the FOMC released their statement as they will reduce bond purchases by 10 billion instead of 15 billion. They will continue with low rates to eternity:
the official release: (and gold falls on this????)
4:00 FOMC continues current pace of tapering; reduces bond purchases by add’l $10B/month to $15B Fed to reduce purchases of agency MBS to $5B/month from $10B Purchases of Treasuries will be reduced to $10B/month from $15B FOMC leaves fed funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, as expected Statement retains language of ‘considerable time’: The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2% longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. There had been considerable debate as to whether the phrase ‘considerable time’ would be removed Statement retains phrase “significant underutilization of labor resources.” Vote 8-2 in favor, with Plosser and Fisher dissenting, each for different reasons Statement can be viewed at the attached link
GLD : no change in tonnes of gold at the GLD (inventory now at 788.22 tonnes)
SLV : today no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory oz/ rests at 339.486 million oz .
The big news today is the massive open interest remains elevated in silver on the comex. John Embry offers his insights to the silver conundrum.
I am sorry that my commentary tonight is awkward as I only have my laptop and I am unaccustomed to its use. However I did provide the key articles for you today. We will discuss these and other stories
So without further ado………………
Let’s head immediately to see the data has in store for us today.
First: GOFO rates/
All months basically moved towards the positive needle as they must have found a few bars to lease. On the 22nd of September the LBMA will not publish GOFO rates. ( I guess the manipulation is getting to them)
London good delivery bars are still quite scarce.
Sept 17 2014
1 Month Rate: 2 Month Rate 3 Month Rate 6 month rate 1 yr rate
.152000% .1520000% .15400% .17200% .254000%
Sept 16 .2014:
1 Month Rate 2 Month Rate 3 Month Rate 6 month Rate 1 yr rate
1500% .154000% .156000% .17400% .26200%
end
Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today,

This post was published at Harvey Organ on September 17, 2014.

Stocks Give Up Post-FOMC Gains; Dollar, Bond Yields Surge

Obviously, today’s market was all about the Fed. some brief stop-running early on took out yesterday’s highs only to fall back before Yellen… then the fireworks began. The initial kneejerk reaction was to sell stocks, sell bonds, and buy USDs. Then came the re-reaction – VIX was slammed below 12, the S&P 500 surged to near intraday record highs, bond yields accelerated higher, EUR and JPY weakness sparked USD bid, and PMs slipped lower as Yellen meandered uncomfortably through a two-faced press conference. By the close, the USD had hit fresh 4-year highs (USDJPY over 108), stocks had roundtripped to unchanged from FOMC, Treasury yields were notably higher, VIX back over 12.5, Trannies surged.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 09/17/2014.

Goldman’s Yellen Press Conference Post-Mortem: “Few Surprises”

BOTTOM LINE: There were few surprises from Fed Chair Yellen’s post-FOMC press conference.
MAIN POINTS:
1. Yellen made two slightly dovish remarks on labor market developments. First, she stated directly that she felt the slow increase in wages was indicative of labor market slack. Second, she said that her own personal view was that there was a “meaningful” cyclical shortfall in participation, when asked about a recent paper by some Fed authors indicating otherwise.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 09/17/2014.

China to Launch Its International Gold Trading Platform This Thursday

On Sept. 17, the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) announced they were accelerating their launch date for opening a new gold window, with the precious metal platform set to begin buying, selling, and trading gold in the Yuan currency on Sept. 18 instead of on their originally projected start date of Sept. 29.
What makes the SGE unique is that unlike the U. S. controlled Comex, the Chinese equivalent will reside in an international free trade zone and offer customers assurances of protected and secure transactions made without the threat of price manipulation, and with the guarantee of physical delivery.
Forty members of the Exchange including global banks UBS, Goldman Sachs, HSBC and Standard Chartered, will participate in gold trading on the SGE’s international board, trading 11 Yuan denominated physical gold contracts including the large 12.5 kg (400 oz) bar, the ever popular 1 kg bar and a 100 gram contract.

This post was published at Gold Broker on Sep 17, 2014.

Scottish Vote

The Scottish vote will be very important from the perspective that this will shake up the entire concept behind Brussels if they vote YES. Throughout Europe, the same civil unrest is rising as discontent every where.. Even if the vote is ‘NO’ and the people accept that they are incapable of self-rule as second-rate citizens, the issue will not go away so easily. The ‘better together’ crowd has NOTHING positive to offer Scotland whatsoever. It has been all about scare tactics that the Scots are inferior. The polls coming out gave the NO vote a 4 point lead. However, the ScotCen poll shows ‘NO’ at 51% and ‘YES’ at 49%, The NO campaign has nothing to offer and if they win, Scotland will really lose and we will see serious tension in the future when the economy turns down next year. The unrest will not vanish with a NO vote – it will be I told you so.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on September 17, 2014.

FOMC Keeps “Considerable” Wealth Effect Dream Alive, More See First Hike In 2015; Two Dissent – Full Statement Comparison

Perhaps not surprisingly – following Hilsenrath’s ‘leak’ – the FOMC has decided to keep the “considerable time” language alive-and-well in its latest statement, supporting the uber-dovishness rate guidance as QE is tapered as expected:
*FED TO END QE PROGRAM AT NEXT MEETING IF OUTLOOK HOLDS, RELEASES EXIT STRATEGY GUIDELINES *FED WILL USE IOER RATE TO MOVE FED FUNDS INTO TARGET RANGE *FED TO USE OVERNIGHT-REVERSE REPO `AS NEEDED’ IN EXIT *FIRST RATE RISE SEEN IN 2015 BY 14 FED OFFICIALS VS 12 IN JUNE *FED KEEPS ‘CONSIDERABLE TIME’ PLEDGE FOR LOW RATES POST-QE *FED SEES MEDIAN FED FUNDS RATE AT 1.375% AT END OF 2015 *FED SAYS TIMING OF REINVESTMENT PHASE-OUT IS ECONOMY-DEPENDENT

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 09/17/2014.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Late Afternoon Smackdown

I hope you have had the time to watch the David Cay Johnston videos I put up overnight. They will help to explain much of what is going on in the financial markets and The Recovery. Gold, and to a lesser extent silver, took a late day price hit after the FOMC meeting in dull trade. I was wondering if the wiseguys were going to let an FOMC Day go by without at least a cheap shot. I include the Comex warehouse activity for silver below. I do not believe it is particularly meaningful however. The real action in precious metals is in the East. I am curious to see what is going to happen to stocks here. The Alibaba IPO should hold them up since it is such a monstrously large snack for Goldman and the Merry Pranksters on Wall Street.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 17 SEPTEMBER 2014.

Rate Bounce After Fed Meeting Pushes Dollar Higher and Gold Price Lower

This is an excerpt from the daily StockCharts.com newsletter to premium subscribers, which offers daily a detailed market analysis (recommended service).
Although today’s Fed announcement didn’t really change anything, the financial markets continued to anticipate higher U. S. rates. The first chart shows the 5-Year Treasury Note Yield climbing close to its yearly high. The 10-Year T-Note yield also bounced. The widening spread between U. S. and foreign yields continues to support the dollar. The second chart shows the Dollar Index hitting a new recovery high. That pushed most commodity prices lower. The orange bars in the second chart shows the Gold Trust (GLD) falling to a new low.

This post was published at GoldSilverWorlds By September 17, 2014.

The “Dots” Chart – Then And Now

Perhaps the one most important, if completely meaningless chart (because it will as usual revised countless times in the next year and the final outcome will be anything but what the Fed is predicting) that everyone was looking for in today’s FOMC forecast materials, is the so-called “dots” – the Fed’s estimates of where the Fed Fund’s rate will be at the end of 2016.
The big picture: while there is increasing clustering in the 2-2.5% region, the lower and higher forecasts actually went down, while the upper range of the Fed Funds rate forecast chart for 2016 was reduced from 6% to 5%.
In other words, when forecasting inflation, growth and the Fed Funds rate, the Fed will need a smaller chart.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 09/17/2014.

How To Game A Rigged Market

Markets are on alert in a week that could see more great insights from the gods of central banking on high. Investors seem a little spooked with the MSCI emerging markets index off 4% in the last eight trading days, while currency volatility has picked up as the US dollar has strengthened. And yet despite these minor ructions, there remains a deeper sense of calm. It is the sort of quiescence born of insiders’ knowledge that the nature of financial markets has changed, and in a way that favors them.
In the past, money sat at the center of the economic system. When money was created, it moved slowly through the real economy toward the fringes where assets were located. Too much money caused a bull market; too little and we got the reverse. Now asset prices sit at the center of the system and money is relegated to the periphery. Every right-minded person knows the main role of a central bank is to create sufficient money to stop asset prices going down, because if this can be achieved then a little of that elixir may just flow into the real economy and create growth.
Indeed, talk to a central banker, preferably a retired one, and they will admit that they have one long term goal which is to stop asset prices from going down the following week. This is because so much debt is linked to these assets that should prices start to fall then the mother of all margin calls would materialize. Most central bankers have read Irving Fisher’s great 1934 tome The Debt Deflation Theory of Great Depressions and they don’t want something similar starting on their watch.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 09/17/2014.

Bankers Rule: City of London vs. Scottish Independence

Now that the independence referendum is too close to call, the bankers express their worry. The media blitz ramps up to tip the outcome. Scottish independence has finally rattled the City of London has the usual banksters forecasting the dislocations from a currency panic.
Scotland has a long and noteworthy history of banking. Money, savings and investing is entrenched in the culture and society.
Edinburgh is the fourth largest financial centre in Europe (after London, Frankfurt and Paris). Much of this reputation has arisen from its history of innovation over the last three hundred years. The Bank of Scotland, established in 1695, one year after the Bank of England by an Act of the Scottish Parliament, illustrates the prevailing attitude to the creation of money in that era. A list of banking innovations is a useful background of Scottish banking activities.
The City of London is the granddaddy of financial empires. Anglophiles are eager to point out all the achievements of expanding civilization and exporting the dominant economic model that the British Empire established in the colonial period. Control of indigenous cultures has been a dominant objective within the commonwealth association. Scotland knows this lesson better than most.

This post was published at 21st Century Wire on SEPTEMBER 17, 2014.