Initial Reaction The payroll survey shows a net gain of 162,000 jobs vs. an expectation of 230,000 jobs. This broke a six-month string of 200,000 jobs. Digging into the details, things look far worse. The household survey shows a gain in employment of only 16,000. This is the fourth month in the last five that the household survey was substantially weaker than the headline number. The average employment gain in the past five months is 125,200 vs. an average gain in jobs over the same period of 230,800 per month. Is a trend forming? If so, it doesn’t bode well. That said, the household survey is volatile and over time the data series merge. The question now is which one is right? At turns, the household survey tends to lead.
The labor force fell by 64,000. Those not in the labor force increased by 268,000. The unemployment rate fell by 0.1% thanks to a decline in the labor force greater than the rise in employment.
This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on September 05, 2014.
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