COMEX Commercial Traders Reduce Shorts on Gold Futures, but Steady on Silver

HOUSTON – (Got Gold Report) – Large reporting commercial traders on the COMEX bourse in New York reported a considerably smaller net short position in gold futures. Taking the Legacy COT report as a guide, since August 12, when gold closed at $1309.12, as gold drifted $28.49 or 2.2% lower, we can point to a reduction of a rather large 37,139 contracts or 23.1% of the combined large commercial net short positioning (LCNS). Gold off 2.2% over the last two reporting periods, LCNS down 23.1%.

(CFTC for COT, Cash Market for gold, GGR, all charts.)
Exactly 24,114 lots of the gold reduction was in this week’s showing. By comparison the commercials covered very little of their net short position in silver this week, only 64 contracts, but since July 8, when silver closed at $21.02 silver gave back $1.67 or 7.9%. The Silver LCNS peaked the next week, July 15, at a whopping 58,696 contracts (293.5 million ounces). As of this past Tuesday, August 26 it was 37,319 contracts, a reduction of 21,377 contracts or 36%. So, for the six reporting weeks, as silver gave up 7.9% the combined commercial traders in the Legacy COT report covered or offset 36% of their bets that silver would decline in price.

This post was published at GotGoldReport on Sunday, August 31, 2014.

Does France Need A 21st Century Revolution?

Submitted by Saxobank’s Steen Jakobsen via TradingFloor.com,
French President Franois Hollande unveiled his new government under Prime Minister Manuel Valls on August 26, and there have been a few changes. While most senior ministers have retained their positions, economic minister Arnaud Montebourg was replaced by Emmanuel Macron, a former investment banker and economic adviser at the Elyse.
Hollande is already the most unpopular president in French history so he is not risking much by removing a political opponent like Montebourg (who should never have been part of a so-called reform program to begin with). Montebourg is a man of the old school and of old ideas: Among other things, he titled himself “Minister of Industrial Resurrection.” His ideas included threatening to fine businesses for each job they failed to create and speaking against globalisation.

Mired in economic stagnation and barely concealed unrest, France is a nation that often seems displeased with its lot. But will things have to get worse before they get better? Photo: Getty
The problem for President Hollande and any reform efforts is that, as much as removing Montebourg was a victory for his economic strategy, it was also a loss in terms of his political ability to rule both his party and the French state. We often forget that economic policy without political backing is like skiing without snow: Policy needs political anchoring.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/31/2014.

Options Reveal 7 Ways Stocks Can End 2014

Very few things can be known for sure about the future; and even when something is known for sure, the word sure is open to interpretation. Certainly, one can be reasonably sure that the sun will rise tomorrow, though technically even that it is not 100% certain.
It is possible to be sure about the future of the stock market – perhaps not quite as sure as tomorrow’s sunrise – but sure nonetheless. As the Lobour Day holiday is upon us, and with the final trading months of the year now approaching, we may find it helpful to take some time to consider what we actually know for sure about the stock market, inasmuch as we can be sure of anything.
To determine what we know for sure regarding the final months of 2014 for the stock market, we must make a prediction. In order for that prediction – or any prediction – to have value, the accuracy of the prediction must be properly disclosed.
For example, based on centuries of historical data one can predict with nearly 100% accuracy that the sun will rise tomorrow. However, to simply state ‘The sun will rise tomorrow’, without citing a historiucal basis for the claim, and without interpreting those historical results to disclose the expected accuracy of the prediction, the statement is worthless. Anyone who has ever had to reassure a toddler that the sun will rise again knows the importance of providing a basis for the claim.
Baseless predictions about the future of the stock market are no better than baseless predictions regarding the sunrise. On the other hand, any prediction that has an edge, even if it is a small edge (for example, a 51% likelihood of being correct) can be valuable to a trader so long as the trader is aware of the expected accuracy.

This post was published at ZenTrader on August 31, 2014.

Deflation knocks at ECB’s door, markets look for cash boost

From BusinessWorld Online without a “by line.” FRANKFURT — Financial markets are looking to the European Central Bank to open the cash floodgates next week after consumer price data showed the 18-country eurozone is flirting with deflation, analysts said.
Speculation is rising that the ECB’s decision-making governing council could signal plans for what is known as “quantitative easing” or “QE” at its regular monthly meeting on Thursday.
This is a radical policy — already used by other central banks such as the US Federal Reserve — of buying securities on a big scale to inject cash into the economy.
The ECB has already cut its key interest rates to record lows and made huge volumes of ultra-cheap cash available to banks in a bid to kick-start lending in the singe currency area.
But the pressure has increased on the ECB to take still more measures after eurozone inflation slowed to a paltry 0.3 percent in August from 0.4 percent the previous month.
That is worryingly below the central bank’s target of just under 2.0 percent and brings the single currency area perilously close to deflation, a climate of falling prices which can cause businesses and consumers to delay purchases, further reducing demand and prices and pushing up unemployment.

This post was published at GotGoldReport on Sunday, August 31, 2014.

Double Whammy China PMI Misses Spark Sell-Side Demands For More Stimulus

A record-breaking surge in monthly credit creation and a trillion Yuan of QE-lite was enough to provide a glimmer of hope into the tumbling Chinese economy for one or maybe two months but with the real estate market continuing to free-fall, it should be no surprise that China’s PMIs finally catch down to the erstwhile reality simmering under the surface in the ultimate centrally-planned economy. China’s official government PMI dropped from 30-month highs, missed expectations and the early month flash print, to less exuberant 51.1 reading (with Steel industry new orders totally collapsing) with both medium- and small-companies printing contractionary sub-50 levels. Then (after Japan’s PMI beat – of course it did as hard data crashes worst on record), HSBC China PMI also missed, printing a slightly expansionary 50.2 Showing, as BofA warns “the two PMIs both show that the current recovery is relatively weak and choppy…” and RBS adds “we expect the government to interpret such an outlook as challenging its growth target and to take more, and more significant, measures to support growth.”

As Goldman writes,
August official PMI tends to be biased on the upside. Since the data started in 2005, this is the second time it fell in August (first time was August 2012). The degree of seasonality probably has been reduced in recent years but may still exist. This suggests underlying slowdown might be more meaningful, which is consistent with the weak reading of the HSBC PMI.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/31/2014 –.

Draghi Asset-Backed Leverage for Euroland

Mario Draghi of the ECB (European Central Bank) has cut a deal to fight inflation with BlackRock to advise on a possible bond-buying scheme to flood the market with euro cash. BlackRock will help the ECB to design a program to buy asset-backed securities as part of the regulator’s plans to ease credit conditions in the Euroland. Draghi, ex-Goldman Sachs, believes that a scheme would create demand for securitizations within the Euroland and provide incentives for lending to credit-starved businesses to get the economy going again when the banks have failed.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on August 30, 2014.

31/8/2014: Changes in Employment by Sector

Previous posts covering QNHS release for Q2 2014 provided analysis of
Irish dependency ratio:Breakdown of population over 15 years of age by their principal economic status: employed, unemployed, in retirement, students, engaged at home, and ‘others’:Unemployment and Participation Rates:Duration of Unemployment, including distribution by Age Cohorts: Here is a summary of changes in employment by sector:

This post was published at True Economics on Sunday, August 31, 2014.

The Fall Is Golden For Bullion Bulls

September is the hottest month of the year for gold prices, rising on average 3% over the past 20 years. As the yellow metal tests hovers off 2-month-lows, Bloomberg notes that “Indian jewelers and dealers will be stocking up in the coming weeks,” ahead of the festival period, which runs from late August to October (andis followed by the wedding season) when bullion is bought for part of the bridal trousseau or in jewelry form as gifts from relatives. As GoldCore’s Mark O’Byrne notes, “a lot of traders are aware of this trend towards seasonal strength… They tend to buy and that creates momentum.”
Some color on the week’s Precious Metals Trading from Alasdair Macleod of GoldMoney,
The pattern of trading in precious metals changed for the better this week. After London’s bank holiday on Monday, for the first time in a long time the market opened in London’s pre-market with higher prices. This indicated Asian or Middle-Eastern physical demand was returning to the market. Predictably, prices drifted lower during London hours as paper trading took over, and all the gains were more or less lost by close of play on Comex in New York.
It was a similar story on Wednesday. Yesterday, (Thursday) started the same way, but this time the move gained more traction; but volumes remain pitifully low, in common with open interest. Today this pattern was not repeated with gold kicking off unchanged on overnight levels. However, gold is up $15 on the week and feels more firmly based.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/31/2014.

The Ultimate Demise Of The Euro Union

The European Union (EU) was created by the Maastricht Treaty on November 1st 1993. It is a political and economic union between European countries which makes its own policies concerning the members’ economies, societies, laws and to some extent security. To some, the EU is an overblown bureaucracy which drains money…and compromises the power of sovereign states. For others, the EU is the best way to meet challenges smaller nations might struggle with – such as economic growth or negotiations with larger nations – and worth surrendering some sovereignty to achieve. Despite many years of integration, opposition remains strong.
ACCORDINGLY, there are signs the EU is teetering on implosion.
Indeed the Euro zone break up is inevitable for numerous reasons.
Unpayable government debts and the massive bailouts in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland logically pave the road to an eventual EU break up.
While it’s convenient to have the one currency for 17 different nations, the nature of those national economies and their strength is quite different and problematic. Indeed and fact it favors wealthy countries like Germany and France at the expense of the PIIGS (i.e. Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain).
Another issue is that while the 17 nations share the same Central Bank, they do not have a central control on government budgets, nor central political control.
Paul Griffiths, Colonial First State chief investment officer does not want to put a time frame on the euro zone being shrunk, but says it will eventually be very different from what it is today.

This post was published at Gold-Eagle on September 1, 2014.

Eurozone Currency Dispute Intensifies: France Wants More ECB Action to Correct Overvalued Euro, Germany Doesn’t

The currency and fiscal battleground front lines in Europe remains the same. France wants QE, fiscal stimulus, and more leeway on meeting fiscal deficit targets. Germany doesn’t. And the fighting has strengthened.
The idea that ECB can produce nirvana by devaluing the euro is ridiculous. Yet, that’s the battle cry of the day.
Bloomberg reports France Asks for More Action From ECB to Correct Overvalued Euro.
French Prime Minister Manuel Valls called for more action from the European Central Bank to lower the value of the euro, amid concerns the 18-nation region might be headed toward deflation.
‘The monetary policy has started to change,’ Valls said today in a speech made at the Socialist Party’s summer school in La Rochelle, France. While he called the ECB’s package of measures taken in June a ‘strong signal,’ he also said that ‘one will have to go even further.’
Valls’s comments come after ECB President Mario Draghi, who’ll meet French President Francois Hollande tomorrow in Paris, signaled that declining inflation expectations are pushing the central bank toward introducing quantitative easing. Policy makers will gather in Frankfurt on Sept. 4 for their monetary-policy meeting.

This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on Sunday, August 31, 2014.

Dow, Gold and Silver…A Last Stand, A Fake Out And A Surge

The Dow hit a marginal new all time high during the last week. So let’s see where things stand there first.
DOW DAILY CHART

Before we get to the present, let’s take a quick look at the past. We can see the previous top in July was accompanied by triple bearish divergences in several indicators, being the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), Stochastic indicator and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. That led to a significant decline.
Then we had a rally that clipped the previous high by a mere two points. I thought this would be a bear rally but have been proven wrong. However, a profit was taken by identifying the previous top and the start of the rally. Some profit was given back re-shorting but the mistake was quick to be picked up so no major damage was done. It’s nice when you can be wrong and still make money! But that’s chump change as far as I’m concerned. I’m after the big plays.
So that brings us to the present.

This post was published at Gold-Eagle on August 31, 2014.

Gold at $2000?

QUESTION: Marty, do you think it is even possible for gold to close at $2,000 by year-end? This just seems to be the same story over and over again.
Thanks
SK
ANSWER: Sorry, no. Here is a chart of gold back to 1264. There is not even a pattern like that, which has EVER taken place. I am really at a loss why gold analysts keep proclaiming the same thing costing people their life savings. Pretending to be a forecaster to just talk people into doing something you would like to see is called manipulation. To keep a client base you have to have correct forecasts. Is this just a process of churning out novices and causing them countless losses to line the pockets of the pros?
Technically, this is the primary support channel in gold. It has not changed. These forecasts for gold are entirely out of context and ignore the entire world economic trends. You cannot even argue gold rises with war for that is not even true. Gold did not rally during World War II because it was fixed. Commodities did not rise because the government put in wage and price controls. This is not a simply if then do this formula. It takes a bit more – if then do this else do that.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on August 31, 2014.

Gold and silver set to shine as EU revs up sanctions on Russia and then what happens?

old and silver prices will likely head higher this week as the traditionally strong month of September is turbo-charged by the slide towards EU recognition of the war in the Ukraine, with Russia now being told to back off by next weekend or else.
Such threats have not worked in the past. But whether the 28-nation bloc can agree to anything strong enough to really deter Russia from its mission in Ukraine is doubtful.
New sanctions
Measures proposed range from taking away the hosting of the 2018 World Cup to switching off the SWIFT system of banking transfers. The EU will consider the immediate damage to its own business interests and also the probable Russian response, a crippling ban on EU car imports, for example.

This post was published at Arabian Money on 31 August 2014.

The ‘New’ Silver Fix and the Powers That Be!

The ‘New’ Silver Fix and the Powers That Be! With Remarks On Texas Governor Rick Perry & Texas Gold! Accompanied by a Warning to Jewelers!
Presented August 2014 by Charles Savoie
Effective mid-month August 2014, the old silver ‘fix’ has been replaced by a new silver ‘fix,’ run jointly by the CME Group, owner of the COMEX, and Thomson Reuters. But has anything of real substance changed? It certainly has not. The new ‘fix’ was awarded by the LBMA, London Bullion Market Association, composed of neer-do-well entities including Barclays Bank, HSBC Bank, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase Bank, and additionally Bank of Nova Scotia, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Mitsui & Company, and Paris based Societe Generale. For 116 months I’ve routinely made details available about a unique organization known to few as ‘The Pilgrims Society.’ Persons who haven’t become aware of this group can find details on Google search. If you especially want the monetary details relating to this group and precious metals, add my name to theirs in the search box or read ‘The Silver Stealers’ documentary. Therefore, I won’t go into another basic explanation of The Pilgrims Society here. The ringleaders of the megabanks above have all had heavy representation in The Pilgrims Society. The rest have been and remain represented in interlocking groups such as the Trilateral Commission and the Bilderberg conferences – groups founded by Pilgrims Society members. I am not among the commentators you can read the fastest, because of the nature of these presentations, in depth examinations must be made to substantiate my claims. However, just to make reference to this alleged ‘new’ silver fix, and how bogus it is, I offer this brief report. An oft repeated phrase most have heard, and which drives home how dismal this old world often is, has it that ‘the more things change, the more they remain the same.’ We will not get into a long documentary such as ‘Who Controls The Gold Stealing New York Fed Bank,’ released last February, but will let a few points suffice. This is a mere matter of a group of gangsters who tossed the ball to others in their racketeering organization. Mitsui Global Precious Metals, a Silver Users Association member, is a subsidiary of Mitsui & Company – a Trilateral Commission interest. The Mitsuis and the Rockefellers have been associates since before 1907 when the Japan Society was founded by Rockefeller-Vanderbilt liaison Lindsay Russell as another offshoot of The Pilgrims Society. The Japan Society in fact was forerunner to the Trilaterals, founded 66 years later, but represented an expansion into Britain and Europe, in response to Bilderberg not including Japanese industrialists and bankers. Meaning that Bilderberg is over-rated compared to the Trilaterals! However, they both sprang from this older organization which remains in the shadows.

This post was published at Silver-Investor on August 29, 2014.

Holmes – Anticipate Before You Participate: Patterns in Trading

Frank Holmes, CEO of U. S. Global Investors in San Antonio writes: The primary unit of time measurement for high-frequency traders might be the microsecond, but for normal retail traders, it’s vital to know the best months, days and even half-hours of the day to make market transactions.
Consider Black Friday, the most active shopping day of the year. Let’s say a 60′ 1080p plasma HDTV normally goes for around $900 but, on Black Friday, is discounted to $500. That’s a 44 percent savings. If you had a desire to own this TV and were somehow guaranteed a way to bypass the rabid mobs, you’d be careless to spend $900 on it the day before.
Likewise, you’d be at a disadvantage to buy or sell a security without first conducting some level of research to determine the optimal time, statistically speaking, to make a transaction. At the very least, you should know when not to make a transaction.
Fortunately, much of this research has already been conducted. My friend Jeffrey Hirsch, following in the footsteps of his late father Yale Hirsch, has for years edited the invaluable Stock Trader’s Almanac, which is updated annually. The book is notable for finding reliable patterns in market trends and behavior, on both the macro and micro scale. It also gave birth to such well-known investing adages as ‘Sell in May and Go Away’ and the ‘January Barometer.’
Thirty-five years ago when I was just getting started in the investment business, I asked Yale how he managed to arrive at his findings. He told me that his background in music composition enabled him to ‘hear’ melodies, if you will, in four-year presidential cycles, seasonal cycles, weekly cycles and more. This interdisciplinary approach of combining music and finance should inspire all investors to leverage their own unique skills, talents and backgrounds to seek patterns in the market that others might overlook.
If you don’t already own a copy of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, I urge you to make a special trip to the bookstore. You can also visit the book’s website and sign up for a free seven-day trial. The site provides a wealth of helpful and fascinating information for investors to peruse.

This post was published at GotGoldReport on Saturday, August 30, 2014.

Financial Astrology – Crude Update

The Markets
The bullish trend we were expecting in the middle of August gained additional strength in last weeks trading session. The technical long term trend is for the Nasdaq has realigned to the upside and joins the DJIA. The Nasdaq has done a ‘whipsaw’, as Jeff likes to call it, giving a signal that is bullish for all the indexes. Jeff often sees this type of market being followed up by a very big bullish breakout. We could see this type of move next week or in the second week of September. We will continue to hold our long positions, trim profits, and add to our longs as new setups materialize. I will continue to advise caution in the first week of September, however, by mid September we will likely see another very strong move up on the indexes.
Oil ($WTIC)
Saturn and Mars will make a conjunction in the sky this week, will likely see a rebound with oil prices moving higher. A bullish move is likely into mid October.

This post was published at ZenTrader on August 30, 2014.

31/8/2014: Irish Dependency Ratio Rises in H1 2014

Previous posts covering QNHS release for Q2 2014 provided analysis of
Breakdown of population over 15 years of age by their principal economic status: employed, unemployed, in retirement, students, engaged at home, and ‘others’:Unemployment and Participation Rates:Duration of Unemployment, including distribution by Age Cohorts:

This post was published at True Economics on Sunday, August 31, 2014.

Prepare For Longterm Instability and Hardship

Unlike the normal business cycle that allows for a recession every few years to clear out the mal-investments and keep the system functioning properly, the current cycle has been artificially induced with money that has unseated the foundation of good financial practices and caused a series of bubbles that must pop at some point. When this happens the business cycle will be heavily damaged and will take many years to reestablish some type of normalcy.
If you think of a cycle as a pendulum swinging back and forth, you must realize that the further it swings to one side, the further it will swing to the other to balance itself. That is what we must realize with the current bubble boom in the financial sectors. The further out of balance they get, the further they will need to swing back to preserve equilibrium. When these bubbles finally pop, the offsetting swing will be monumental. A normal recession of a few years will be exaggerated to a multi-year disaster.
These are the type of conditions that usher in depressions of long duration. This bubble induced mania is far beyond anything experienced in human history and will result in an equally disastrous financial contraction destroying paper assets and making hard assets desirable and difficult to acquire in the aftermath.
In this type of situation, hard assets and a wide knowledge base are as good as it gets. The ownership of capital equipment that produces necessary consumer goods and the ability to finance yourself internally combined with sufficient knowledge to use these resources will provide a safe harbor to get through the difficulties that arise. Becoming your own bank requires the ability to store financial assets such as precious metals and diamonds that have universal value. This is one of the few ways to store wealth that can survive such market destruction.

This post was published at Silver Bear Cafe on August 30, 2014.